Inflation has accelerated markedly in recent months, reaching 4.1% yoy in August. Core inflation increased to a historical high of 4.8% yoy, with widespread price increases, especially in services. At the end of the year, we expect headline inflation to be close to 5.4%, but even higher value is a risk. In our view, this will force the central bank to raise interest rates faster. At the next bank board meeting on 30 September, we expect rates to be raised by 50bp. Monetary policy tightening should continue over the rest of the year, with the repo rate reaching 2% at year-end, from the current 0.75%. However, high inflation will dampen the impact of higher nominal rates, as real interest rates are likely to remain deeply negative.

Inflation in August again surprised significantly upward above all expectations. Services are becoming more expensive, but price increases are running across the consumer basket. Rising inflation may be largely a temporary phenomenon, but fears of rising inflation expectations are likely to force the CNB to tighten monetary policy more quickly. At the end of September, we expect the CNB's key rate to increase 50 basis points to 1.25%.