Waiting for vaccine The economy should return to growth this year with the help of widespread vaccination and economic policy stimulus. The pre-crisis GDP level will likely be reached again as we approach 2022. 

At the turn of the year, two government measures came into force to help combat the coronavirus crisis and boost household consumption. The measures consisted of a one-time payment to all old-age, disability and survivors’ pensioners and the elimination of super-gross wage and related tax adjustments. This study shows that both of these measures can have a strong impact on household consumption due to their widespread effect. According to our calculations, higher pensions should lead to a temporary increase in household consumption of almost 2%, and in the case of the tax reductions, to a sustainable increase in consumption of up to 3.4%. But given the high degree of uncertainty and the closure of the economy, the current situation might hinder consumer spending in terms of either total expenditure and/or amount spent over time.