The flash estimate for Czech GDP growth in the last quarter of 2017 showed a relatively weaker performance of the domestic economy compared with its regional peers. The qoq GDP dynamics printed 0.5% while yoy growth recorded 5.1%. According to the CZSO’s comments, the strong dynamics were driven by all demand components. That corroborates our estimates, but we expected a slightly stronger magnitude of demand. In a qoq comparison, Czech GDP did not even match the dynamics of the German economy. The lack of an available labour force probably played a role to some extent. Employment remained at the same level as in the preceding quarter while it increased 1.5% in yoy terms, Komercni banka says.

The price level increased significantly at the beginning of the year. Energy prices are partially to blame as distribution fees increased. But other prices joined, as well. Businesses traditionally change price lists at the beginning of the year. They have already factored in their expectations about wage growth, which mainly impacts the core element. Food prices also increased.  Headline inflation eased due to statistical base effects as the beginning of 2017 was also marked by a strong price increase. Yet, inflation still remains above the 2% CNB target, where it should remain for the months to come, Komerční banka says.