We expect the Czech National Bank to cut its key repo rate by a further 50bp at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, mainly due to the still-worsening growth outlook for the Czech economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The koruna could therefore depreciate further vs the euro, prompting the CNB to react. We do not expect it to implement quantitative easing measures, however.

Our view is that the strict containment measures adopted by the Czech Republic are necessary not only to contain the spread of disease in order to prevent a breakdown in the healthcare system and consequent greater loss of life, but also to avoid the longterm economic damage a significant outbreak could cause. Therefore, we propose the government pursue immediate economic measures that will mitigate the damage of virus and its containment and then prepare regulatory changes that can make recovery swifter and more sustainable. 1) Pass some form of the Ministry of Social Affairs proposal by March 20. 2) Consider introducing renewable time limits and a salary cap for government contributions. 3) Consider moving from a kurzarbeit-style program to direct company payments if the containment period lasts more than a month.