Are you in or out? This is the question being mulled by the Social Democrats, as they are the ones who have to decide whether to take part in a coalition government with the ANO movement but propped up in the background by the Communist Party. We also need to bear in mind that, for the first time since the Velvet Revolution in 1989, the Communists are very close to influencing Czech government policy, Grayling Czech Republic says in the May issue of their Political Digest.

The Trump Administration announced yesterday that a tariff of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum would be applied on products from the European Union, as well as Mexico and Canada, starting on June 1. This follows several weeks of waivers while the parties attempted to reach an agreement which would prevent such a tariff.

The flash GDP estimate showed only mild growth in the first quarter. The second reading should reveal that domestic demand is behind the growth while external trade curbs its dynamics. April was a successful month for retailers, who after a weaker first quarter gained nice yoy sales growth. An additional two working days supported the dynamics of industrial production, while April´s warmer weather encouraged growth in the construction sector. May’s figures should confirm April’s inflation return. Thanks to higher fuel and food prices, headline inflation should return to the CNB target.

On the back of the recent market turmoil and the increase in political stress, we have revised our EUR/CZK call higher for the coming months. However, the medium-term forecasts remain virtually unchanged.