Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth
This section reports on economic policy initiatives of the Czech government, the EU, and other entities that have a direct impact on the competitiveness of the country. It also includes information on economic priorities of the AmCham and other leading associations.
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Spotlight issue
Taming the Inflation Shrew
Components subcontracting set to boost the economy We expect an improvement in the supply chain situation, which should support production and help the economy grow at a rate of 4.9% this year, on our forecasts. However, economic policy tightening should gradually slow the growth rate to below 3% in 2023.
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Monthly forecast: The industry probably revived before the end of the year
Data on car production and leading indicators suggest that industrial production may have grown significantly in November. Higher car sales and a still-solid labour market may have helped retail sales. On the other hand, deteriorating consumer confidence and accelerating inflation are holding back real retail sales. Year-on-year inflation probably rose again towards 7% at the end of the year. We expect this level to be exceeded in January.
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Inflation was not surprising in December but is rising
Inflation rose to 6.6% yoy in December, in line with market expectations. Compared to the Czech National Bank's forecast, it was still one percentage point higher. The transition between energy suppliers led to a slight month-on-month decrease in electricity prices. Gas prices have risen. Food prices rose slightly, while fuel prices became cheaper. Without the VAT waiver, annual inflation would be close to 8%. It will head to 9% yoy at the beginning of this year. In February, we expect the CNB repo rate to increase to 4.50%.
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