Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth
This section reports on economic policy initiatives of the Czech government, the EU, and other entities that have a direct impact on the competitiveness of the country. It also includes information on economic priorities of the AmCham and other leading associations.
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Spotlight issue
Elevated inflation to accelerate pace of monetary policy tightening
Inflation has accelerated markedly in recent months, reaching 4.1% yoy in August. Core inflation increased to a historical high of 4.8% yoy, with widespread price increases, especially in services. At the end of the year, we expect headline inflation to be close to 5.4%, but even higher value is a risk. In our view, this will force the central bank to raise interest rates faster. At the next bank board meeting on 30 September, we expect rates to be raised by 50bp. Monetary policy tightening should continue over the rest of the year, with the repo rate reaching 2% at year-end, from the current 0.75%. However, high inflation will dampen the impact of higher nominal rates, as real interest rates are likely to remain deeply negative.
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Inflation accelerates; CNB will fasten interest rate hikes
Inflation in August again surprised significantly upward above all expectations. Services are becoming more expensive, but price increases are running across the consumer basket. Rising inflation may be largely a temporary phenomenon, but fears of rising inflation expectations are likely to force the CNB to tighten monetary policy more quickly. At the end of September, we expect the CNB's key rate to increase 50 basis points to 1.25%.
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Wage growth was optically raised by comparison base
The average gross monthly wage increase 11.3% in nominal terms in the second quarter, and 8.2% in real terms. It thus exceeded our and market expectations. Conversely, the central bank, which expected nominal wage growth of 12%, may be satisfied with its estimate. However, wage developments were significantly affected by last year's low comparison base. After seasonal adjustment, wage growth reached only 1.2% in a qoq comparison, which can certainly not be considered rapid dynamics. In addition, the payment of extraordinary rewards in healthcare largely contributed. The median wage in the second quarter was CZK32,408.kom
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