Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth
This section reports on economic policy initiatives of the Czech government, the EU, and other entities that have a direct impact on the competitiveness of the country. It also includes information on economic priorities of the AmCham and other leading associations.
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Spotlight issue
Inflation accelerates; CNB will raise interest rates again
At its November meeting, the CNB will continue to raise interest rates. We expect them to increase by 50bp, but the risk is higher growth. The tightening of monetary policy is justified by the development of inflation, which we expect to get closer to 6% in October. Industrial production and retail sales should show minor growth in September.
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Industry dropped strongly due to car manufacturers
Industry fell sharply below all estimates in August, mainly due to a drop in car production. Hand in hand with this, the foreign trade balance also deteriorated. Construction output grew slightly. In summary, the published data were worse than expected, and although it is not good to draw strong conclusions from the summer months, supply chain problems appear to continue to weigh heavily on industry.
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Inflation is still not easing – rather the opposite
Inflation in September again surprised with higher-than-expected growth. The main driver is housing costs, including the incipient rise in energy prices. Year-on-year core inflation rose to 6%. There is no doubt that the CNB will continue to raise interest rates.
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