Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth
This section reports on economic policy initiatives of the Czech government, the EU, and other entities that have a direct impact on the competitiveness of the country. It also includes information on economic priorities of the AmCham and other leading associations.
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Spotlight issue
Domestic economy did not surf the strong global growth wave in 4Q
The flash estimate for Czech GDP growth in the last quarter of 2017 showed a relatively weaker performance of the domestic economy compared with its regional peers. The qoq GDP dynamics printed 0.5% while yoy growth recorded 5.1%. According to the CZSO’s comments, the strong dynamics were driven by all demand components. That corroborates our estimates, but we expected a slightly stronger magnitude of demand. In a qoq comparison, Czech GDP did not even match the dynamics of the German economy. The lack of an available labour force probably played a role to some extent. Employment remained at the same level as in the preceding quarter while it increased 1.5% in yoy terms, Komercni banka says.
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Inflation eased despite an increase in energy prices
The price level increased significantly at the beginning of the year. Energy prices are partially to blame as distribution fees increased. But other prices joined, as well. Businesses traditionally change price lists at the beginning of the year. They have already factored in their expectations about wage growth, which mainly impacts the core element. Food prices also increased. Headline inflation eased due to statistical base effects as the beginning of 2017 was also marked by a strong price increase. Yet, inflation still remains above the 2% CNB target, where it should remain for the months to come, Komerční banka says.
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EC publishes Winter 2018 Interim Economic Forecast: Growth is expected to moderate in 2018, 2019, inflationary pressures will continue as a result of the positive output gap
The forecast covers the years 2017, 2018 and 2019 and includes data on gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation for all 28 EU Member States.
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