The year-on-year inflation slowed down in November to 2.6% after its peak in October, when it reached the highest pace in the past five years. Despite that, consumer prices increased moderately on a mom basis. According to our forecast, the inflation pace will further decelerate in the following months.

The Czech Statistical Office (CZSO) confirmed its preliminary estimate of domestic GDP growth at 0.5% qoq and 5.0% yoy. The favourable dynamics were mainly thanks to private consumption, which increased 0.9% qoq (+4.4% yoy). Households benefit from a low unemployment rate, which improves its low every month, and sound wage growth. Moreover, consumers remain optimistic as there are no signs that the good times will come to an end anytime soon. This is also mirrored in investment activity. Businesses adjust to growing demand for output amid a stretched labour market, where it is almost impossible to find a suitable work force. Thus, they invest in a way that they do not have to hire too many personnel for their new facilities or they can free up some labour force when renewing existing facilities. Investment has thus remained at a sound level from the second quarter. In yoy terms, investment growth prints at 7.5%. Moreover, it seems there is more unfinished investment as inventory built contributed 1pp to overall GDP growth.