Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth
This section reports on economic policy initiatives of the Czech government, the EU, and other entities that have a direct impact on the competitiveness of the country. It also includes information on economic priorities of the AmCham and other leading associations.
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Spotlight issue
CNB raises rates, but forecasts stronger koruna, fewer hikes
The Czech National Bank (CNB) today increased the repo rate to 0.75%. The decision was unanimous (all five present members voted for a hike). The press conference was more interesting than the decision. Governor Rusnok presented a new forecast, which included the regulator’s projected EUR/CZK trajectory. It shows the CZK strengthening to EUR/CZK 24.6 by year-end. However, the forecast shows limited growth in rates for the remainder of the year. Komercni banka expects slower CZK appreciation and a stronger economy to allow central bankers to normalise rates at a swifter tempo. Komercni banka assumes three more hikes this year, with the repo rate at 1.5% at year-end.
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M.Skorepa/Ceska sporitelna compares trade exchange between Czech Republic and Bavaria, Russia, China
In the light of the recent presidential election and the campaign surrounding it, Michal Skorepa, Economist at Ceska sporitelna, has calculated trade volume of the Czech Republic with Bavaria, Germany, compared with trade exchange of the Czech Republic with Russia and China. The calculations are based on data published by the Czech Statistical Office and German Statistical Office.
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ING Bank: Czech Republic: Hike is a done deal, but rates forecast to be dovish
The February hike is a done deal following the recent CNB communication. However, the dovish tilt may come from the CNB interest rate forecast, which is likely to signal only two hikes in 2018, ING Bank says.
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