Economic confidence has remained favourable and positively influenced both industrial activity and construction yoy dynamics in July. Company-wide holidays, however, pulled industrial growth down on a monthly basis. In July, the trade balance ended in its first deficit since the beginning of the year. Wage growth eased in the second quarter, but it remains very strong and propels core price growth. Headline inflation should print a strong 2.5%.

The American Chamber of Commerce in the Czech Republic prepared another update on the Czech workforce. This report focuses on main trends in employment and median wages in six occupational categories (managers, professionals, technicians, clerical workforce, craftsmen and plant, machine operators and assemblers) in the private and public sector in the South Moravian region (Jihomoravský kraj).

Despite the CNB hiking rates twice over the summer, the koruna remains rather weak while core inflation is accelerating on the back of rising wages. The CNB’s forecasts assume one more hike in the third quarter, and the market has already priced it in. We expected a hawkish outcome from the latest CNB meeting that would see the koruna strengthen. However, although the bank’s short-term outlook did prove hawkish, the FX market has not reacted. We change our CNB call in accordance with the market view of September hike. We still expect another hike in November.

On 29 August AmCham held the pre-election roundtable with Štěpán Štrébl, campaign manager of the Czech Pirate party, on AmCham economic priorities for Prague.